New computer modeling indicates that Maryland is heading in the wrong direction as it strives to meet a state-mandated 60% reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2031.
The sobering data, revealed Thursday by the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, indicates that state and federal policies currently on the books in Maryland will only reduce globe-warming emissions 42% from 2006 levels.
The same group of researchers had predicted in 2023 that the state would reduce its carbon emissions 50% by 2031 — still shy of the 60% goal set by law, but better than the new estimate.
Among many factors driving the shift are policy changes from President Donald Trump’s (R) administration, including rollbacks of electric vehicle rules, as well as climate and renewable energy funding in the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
In 2023, “the federal government was a very strong partner on climate action,” said Kathleen Kennedy, an assistant research professor at the center, who presented the data on Thursday to a working group from the Maryland Commission on Climate Change. The government was “actively engaging with the states to try to support state climate action and federal policy implementation.”
The Trump-era rollbacks are responsible for dropping Maryland’s figure by 3 percentage points, according to Kennedy’s data. During the presentation, Garrett Fitzgerald, an official from the Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection, said the impact of the federal changes was jarring.
“It’s remarkable seeing all that stuff on one slide,” said Fitzgerald, who represents the Maryland Association of Counties on the commission, “as a reminder of, ‘Oh boy, the problem has gotten worse.’”
But even without those federal policy changes, Maryland would still only be on target to reduce emissions 45% — still farther from its ambitious 2031 goal than once thought, according to the latest model.
In 2023, the researchers assumed there would be greater adoption of EVs in Maryland and a stronger outlook for offshore wind. They assumed that more renewable energy projects would be generated by state law, but utilities have paid more alternative compliance payments than expected.
They also did not account for the immense power demands from data centers. They assumed that the Brandon Shores coal-fired power plant, among last in Maryland, would retire in 2025 — not 2029, as currently expected.
And the list goes on from there.
“As the model perfects and the data perfects … we’re losing ground,” said Kim Coble, executive director of the Maryland League of Conservation Voters and co-chair of the commission. “So, the states — there are some tough choices. Like, we’re not going to get there without investments.”
In a statement, the Maryland Department of the Environment, which leads the charge when it comes to reducing the state’s emissions, said that “the good news is that we have five years to make smart decisions, do the right thing and take advantage of technological advances.”
“Today’s modeling results present a snapshot of an ever-changing climate policy landscape. There have been significant impacts to current policies from federal rollbacks, but Maryland is committed to advancing strategies that reduce climate pollution,” wrote MDE spokesman Jay Apperson.
Notably, the model only accounted for policies that have been officially enacted, Kennedy said. More “nebulous” pronouncements from the Trump administration, for instance, did not make the cut. And the model does not consider whether those policies could be reversed in the future.
When it comes to Maryland policy, the researchers took into account the Next Generation Energy Act, which created a new fast-track permitting process for new energy generation. But the researchers did not assume a new gas plant would be built, though the only projects approved for the fast-track so far are two concepts for a new, emissions-generating natural gas plant in Harford County.
“We didn’t directly account for the potential new plants since they’re not certain at this time,” Kennedy said during the meeting. “But certainly we do see increased natural gas generation in these scenarios, compared to previous.”
The Maryland Department of the Environment also unveiled its official greenhouse gas inventory for 2023 Thursday, showing emissions for the year were 29% below 2006 levels.
The transportation sector showed the biggest reversal in the new data. In 2023, the researchers expected that the sector could trim its emissions 38% by 2031. The new estimates predict a 23% drop.
The decline is blamed in large part on the fact that California’s Advanced Clean Cars II and Advanced Clean Truck programs will not be taking effect as originally scheduled. In June, Trump signed a law that revokes a federal waiver that had allowed California to implement the programs, which would phase out sales of new gas-powered cars and clean up diesel trucks. California immediately filed a lawsuit challenging the action, but it’s still playing out in the courts.
Maryland had adopted California’s car and truck rules — though it opted to delay penalties for manufacturers last year— and would lose the ability to enforce the policies without the waiver.
“With the loss of those policies, there is less on-road vehicle electrification, so you have less reduction in emissions,” said Bradley Phelps, a faculty assistant at the University of Maryland center. “But there is still some electrification expected.”
The model isn’t necessarily predicting that the waiver won’t be restored in the future. But the researchers used the current state of affairs in shaping their computer model, including only officially enacted policies.
The researchers’ modeling predicts that passenger cars will still be about 25% electrified by 2045, even if Advanced Clean Cars is not reinstated.As of December, 149,477 electric and plug-in hybrid cars were registered in Maryland, compared to just under 93,000 two years earlier. Despite the gains, that is just a fraction of the almost 5 million cars and trucks registered in the state in 2024.
“The question that remains to us is: What are we going to do to reduce transportation emissions?” asked climate commissioner Jamie DeMarco, a lobbyist for the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, after the meeting. “I am hopeful that the legislature will step up to the plate and reduce emissions further to compensate for Trump’s sabotage.”
DeMarco said he is urging the legislature to pass the Transportation and Climate Alignment Act, which would compel the state to mitigate increases in climate pollution from large highway expansion projects, with projects expected to lower emissions, such as upgrades to the public transportation system.
